Barack Obama is currently 60% favorite to win the next Presidential Election in USA according to the betting fixed odds, a percentage that hasn’t changed a lot since the last time I discussed about how to trade the Presidential election’s odds in Betfair. The implied chance graph at the betting exchange shows that Obama has always been the favorite candidate for the Presidential election 2012, since the percentage never dropped below 50%. At the same time, decimal odds never fell below 1.50 either, giving no more than a 70% chance for the win. Most likely Presidential election predictions will pick Obama for the next President, but personally I would be much more willing to risk my money in this market when the resistance level of 70% is penetrated. Of course, we can’t rule out a win for Mitt Romney, an election result that would be a lot safer to predict, if Obama’s odds drift above 2.00.
I most often make my Betfair trading decisions based on technical analysis of Betfair graphs. Regarding next presidential election and specifically the chance for Barack Obama’s win, I consider the 70% resistance level a key level that will most probably indicate the final result if it’s broken. Support and resistance levels say a lot about the crowd’s psychology and for the time being it’s clear that the crowd does not predict a sure win for the current President of USA. I can’t neglect though the ascending triangle, which is a sign of less people predicting a loss for Obama. The odds are clearly fluctuating inside a trading range and I suppose a breakout is more likely the more we get closer to the election date.
When is the presidential election 2012?
Before we even think of trading this market, we should know important information about the event we are betting on, such as when the next presidential election is! The United States presidential election of 2012 is to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012.
How much money has been traded on 2012 Presidential election at the betting exchange?
At the time of writing, 3 months before the election day, more than €3.5m ($4.3m) has exchanged hands through Betfair. Most bets or trades have taken place on Barack Obama’s odds (€2.3m) while Mitt Romney’s win has been the second most popular result (€850K).
Coming from the correct Greek election prediction back in June, I will avoid at this moment to pick a winner, as long as the odds are moving inside the trading range. But what do YOU think about the next Presidential election? What is your election prediction? Let me know in the comments below.